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Common Agricultural Policy Regionalised Impact - The Rural Development Dimension A FP7 project co-ordinated by ILR, 2009-2013 |
See also:
Some other projects
applying CAPRI
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WP 1: Integration and Management
WP Leader: Wolfgang Britz, UBO
Perhaps the most important task in the project is work package 1 (WP1), which presents a typology of RD measures for modelling purposes. In order to analyse policies with quantitative tools, the measures defined in legal texts must be translated into a change in exogenous parameters of the models. A tool for the impact assessment of Pan-European RD policies requires a greater degree of abstraction from the actual implementation of single RD measures at the regional scale, as it would be too expensive to analyse all the legal texts that describe the regional and national implementation of individual measures. Rather, a methodology is needed which is able to derive, in quantitative terms, a scenario definition for the economic models directly from attributes stored in Pan-European databases on RD data. Thus, the purpose of WP1 is to combine the expertise of quantitative modellers, policy analysts and experts on data availability on RD measures to develop a common framework that facilitates the policy impact assessment of RD measures. The measures must be classified according to which sector(s) of the economy they target, which production activities of the respective farming practises receive incentives or disincentives, and how the measures should be implemented (subsidy, tax, standard etc.). The outcome of that process will be the structured database, which will link properties of the measures to exogenous parameters of the models, and will provide input on necessary changes to the economic models to better digest RD scenarios.
Del 1.2: The first annual meeting took place in Istanbul March 25-26 2010
Del 1.3: The second annual meeting took place in Seville March 23-25 2011
WPs 2.1-2.3: Data Bases
WP 2.1 Rural Development Policies and Indicators, leader: Janet Dwyer, CCRU
WP 2.2 Regional Social Accounting Matrices, leader: Maria Blanco, JRC-IPTS
WP 2.3 CAPRI database extension and quality management, leader: Erol Cakmak, METU
Work package 2 (WP2) will deal with databases. As such, it will access and exploit existing databases on Rural Development Policy implementation at the EU level and Candidate and Potential Candidate countries, and will build the regional SAMs for the CGE models at the NUTS II level. The global, national, regional and farm level databases necessary for the economic modelling will be reviewed and updated. WP2 will thus deliver meta-data on the databases used by the tool and develop methodologies and procedures for database updates. It will also develop quality management procedures for the database updates. Part of the work packages also refers to an extension to candidates countries. In this context, it should be mentioned that the CAPRI database already covers all EU27 Member States and the Western Balkans at the NUTS 2 level, and that the integration of Turkey at NUTS 0 is planned. However, a thorough revision of the data quality is certainly necessary. WP2 will ensure that during the project's lifetime, the databases are updated at regular intervals where necessary and that quality management procedures are developed and applied.
Kuhar et.al, Methodological review on the regionalisation of SAMs, CAPRI-RD Deliverable 2.2.1, 2009
Müller et.al., Compilation of National SAM for EU27 Member States, CAPRI-RD Deliverable 2.2.2, 2009
Ferrari et.al., Compilation of datasets needed for regional splitting of the national SAMS: dataset and documentation, CAPPRI-RD Deliverable 2.2.3, 2010
Dol W. and Verhoog D., Methodology for data quality management, CAPPRI-RD Deliverable 2.3.5
WPs 3.1-3.3: Model development and adaption
WP 3.1 RD modelling and model link, leader: David Verhoog, LEI
WP 3.2 Regional CGEs, leader: Hannu Törmä, RURALIA
WP 3.3 Improvement of CAPRI, leader: Alexander Gocht, VTI
The model development and adaptation package (WP3) is broken down into three sub-work package tasks. The first, WP3.1, tackles the integration of the CGEs and CAPRI by developing an iterative transparent link between the two components while ensuring that they can be used as stand-alone components. The second task, WP3.2, refers to the development of the regional CGEs, which are a necessary extension that will allow the impact assessment of RD measures that target non-agricultural activities or primary factor use in agriculture. Further, the CGEs will allow both backward and forward linkages of agriculture within the rural economy to be quantified. The last task, WP3.3, refers to the adaptation of the CAPRI modelling system in order to integrate, as far as possible, the measurement of how Pillar II directly impacts farming decisions at the regional level. The first task will include an extension of the current subsidies covered by CAPRI. Moreover, the task package will review, and if necessary adapt to, how farm premium schemes are implemented in the model. Finally, the first task will improve the way the markets inside the expanded EU are handled in the CAPRI market model by developing, implementing and validating a new methodology. Utilising the CAPRI farm type layer for RD modelling is proposed, as the additional break-down of NUTS II regions into different farming types also allows for a more thorough analysis of RD measures.
Dwyer J. and Thomson K., Literature review of Pillar II modelling in the EU, CAPRI-RD Deliverable 3.1.1, 2009
Witzke P. and Britz W.,Report on modelling RD measures in CAPRI, CAPRI-RD Deliverable 3.1.2
Törmä H et.al,Regional CGE model layout with a focus on integration with the partial equilibrium models and modelling of RD measures, CAPRI-RD Deliverable 3.2.1, 2010
Törmä H. and Zawalinska, K. Methodological description of the CGERegEU+ model, CAPPRI-RD Deliverable 3.3.2
Törmä H. and Zawalinska, K. Final documentation of the CGERegEU+ model, CAPPRI-RD Deliverable 3.3.3
Witze P., Borkowski N. und Britz W., Literature review in modelling price transmission in PE models, CAPPRI-RD Deliverable 3.3.1
Oudendag D. and Helming J.,Literature review on modelling farm payment scheme and decoupled payment in agricultural sector models, CAPPRI-RD Deliverable 3.3.4
WP 4: Baseline
WP 4 Leader: Maria Blanco, JRC-IPTS
Work package 4 (WP4) deals with a common baseline. WP4 will develop a methodology for generating a joint baseline for the integrated components - i.e. a projection covering the most plausible developments in agricultural and other sectors at the regional scale. This baseline will be, to the extent possible, harmonised with the DG-AGRI market outlook. Each autumn an updated, internally consistent baseline will be provided which will serve as a basis for policy impact assessment. WP4 will also establish a network of national experts, if possible members of the CAPRI network, to review the national and regional results from the baseline. This will also ultimately serve to support the validation of the ex post data.
In 2009 (D4.4), 2010 (D4.5) and 2011 (D4.6), yearly baseline until 2020 were relased to provide comparisons for counterfactual analysis, both used during the training sessions and in policy relevant applications such as in deliverables D6.1 and D6.2.
WP 5: Indicators
WP 5 Leader: Jean-Michel Terres, JRC-IES
The indicator work package 5 (WP5) will develop indicator fact-sheets based on the CMEF in order to develop indicator calculators based on the results of CAPRI, the regional CGEs and spatially downscaled results. Those indicators will cover the three axes of sustainability (as described in the CMEF guidelines document). The annex lists the currently proposed implementation of the indicators and their current status. WP5 is also responsible for developing a methodology that will condense information from single indicators into indices, developing appropriate exploitation and representation strategies and where necessary, upscaling methodologies. These methodologies could utilise thresholds to indicate e.g. the percentage of NUTS II regions or the percentage of area where thresholds are not met. The indicators will be integrated stepwise according to their complexity. In some cases, the calculators can be implemented rather rapidly, whereas for others, new methodologies will have to be developed and validated.
WP 6: Policy Impact Assessment
WP 6 Leader: Emil Erjavec, UL
The policy impact work package 6 (WP6) will already apply, on a regular basis, the tool for impact assessment during the project's lifetime. The scenarios to be analysed will be defined in WP7 by the user boards. Such possible applications could e.g. be related to the mid-term evaluation of the current programming period 2007-2013, ex-post evaluations of the CAP or ex-ante impact assessment e.g. of future changes in budgets under Pillar I or II (post 2013 period). Special attention could be given also to the ex-ante evaluation of the pre-accession RD instruments (IPARD) and to the analysis of potential scenario based accession impact analysis for particular candidate countries. The aim of those scenario exercises is at least twofold. Regular application will ensure that during the necessary structural adjustment to the CAPRI-RD system, an operational and up-to-date version will be maintained, which, as far as possible, will implement those project achievements already reached, e.g. regarding improvements realised in WP3 or WP5. Such a procedure has proved fruitful in past projects. Secondly, the continuous application of the system will serve as an important input in the dissemination package, as it will allow clients and users to provide feedback not only on concepts, but also on real world implementation and application.
In 2009 with D6.1 and 2010 with D6.2, two CAP reform related CAPRI application were conducted on request of DG-ARGI, the results are not public. Currently, D6.3, dealing with the legal proposal of CAP post 2013, is under preparation.
WP 7: IT
WP 7 Leader: Wolfgang Britz, UBO
The IT work package 7 (WP7) ensures the maintenance of the technical infrastructure necessary for the system. It is therefore responsible for maintaining the SVN server (version control system), thereby allowing researchers to download a local working copy of the databases, the model code and the GUI, and keep them automatically synchronised with the server version. The SVN system also allows the developer to upload changes to code or results to the server. In order to enhance the economic models' GAMS code, a guide book will be developed that documents how new code should be implemented (naming and coding conventions) and documented in-line. Existing code will be, where necessary, re-factored to follow these standards. The in-line documentation standard was developed to support automated, generated code documentation comparable to e.g. JAVADOC. A methodology will be developed to combine the model's methodological/scientific and technical documentation.
Good practise guide for GAMS development in CAPRI-RD, CAPRI-RD deliverable 7.1
In relation to D7.3 (M48), new features were step-wise released in improved versions of the GUIs, and used e.g. during the yearly training sessions.
WP 8: Dissemination and Stakeholder Involvement
WP 8 Leader: Ben Allen, IEEP
The dissemination work package (WP8) primarily targets the clients of the results generated by the tool, mainly DG-AGRI, DG-REGIO and DG-ENV at the multi-national and national/regional bodies at the level of selected Member States and Candidate countries. Thus, it will set up a two user boards which will serve as the unique entry point to direct user request towards the project team and communicate project findings to those stakeholders. One aim of the project is to develop an easy-to-use GUI that will allow desk officers in the DGs to retrieve indicators generated by the tool as tables, graphs and maps interactively and easily via the internet ex post, for the baseline and for policy simulations based on the tool. The JRC is seen as the in-house research centre of the Commission and as a member of the CAPRI network has already developed, and will further develop, the capacity to use the tool for impact analysis.
Secondly, WP8 will target the CAPRI network as the user community of the CAPRI-RD tool. The dissemination activities specifically target past and current users of CAPRI that are not part of the project partnership, and tries to attract new users for CAPRI-RD, especially in the candidate and potential candidate countries. The dissemination package therefore maintains a CAPRI web page offering access to data, code and on-line documentation of the CAPRI-RD system and also maintains the CAPRI e-mail list. The web page will also list ongoing projects based on CAPRI(-RD), document conference contributions and scientific papers and announce activities of the network. Part of the dissemination strategy consists of the abovementioned SVN server, which allows users to automatically update their local copies of the tool (code and database, as well as documentation) and to integrate contributions in the master version. Yearly training sessions will allow network members and interested researchers to keep up-to-date with methodological developments.
Project overview presentation(ppt)
D8.3 Taining session 1: Took part in September 2009 in Seinäjoki, Finland
D8.4 Taining session 2: Took part in September 2010 in Cheltenham, U.K.
D8.5 Taining session 3: Took part in September 2011 in Braunschweig, Germany
Last Updated:Thursday, January 12, 2012