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CAP-STRAT Project 4: Scenario writing and application of the system

The whole third year of the project is devoted to the application of the validated modelling system for policy analysis. However, the scenario writing (WP13) already starts in month 18 with a one-day meeting between the co-ordinator and DG-AGRI in order to check DG-AGRI's main fields of interest in order to define a crude scenario outline. The early start is necessary to potentially adjust sub-modules of the modelling system to the requirements of specific scenarios. Accordingly, the envisaged timing not only allows to implement such changes (WP5-WP8), but also ensures that these changes are validated (WP9-WP11). The exact definition of the scenarios will then start with month 28 when first results of the reference run are available.

The execution of the reference run (WP12) is a demanding task aiming to forecast the development of the agricultural sector over the next decade under current policy settings. The work package will be carefully prepared based on a one week training session in month 24, in travel-cost-saving connection to workshop 02. This session will introduce all teams to the application of the validated modelling system using the developed software tools and to the methodology of the reference run. The latter requires to define assumptions on exogenous shifts regarding technical progress, farm structure, population, macro-economic development, demand patterns to develop a plausible model run. After first results are achieved, they will be presented at a meeting between the project team and DG-AGRI in the middle of the work package's spread (workshop 03, month 27). The common analysis of the reference run will be the basis for its finalisation and also serves to specify in detail the scenario definitions for the simulation runs (WP14). Afterwards, the scenario definition must be mapped in the numerical language of the model system in months 28-30.

Experiences from past projects show that a meeting over several days, carefully prepared by the different teams, is necessary in order to finalise the reference run, because the multitude of different exogenous assumptions must eventually be modified to come up with an overall consistent specification and plausible result. This so-called "melting down" meeting will take place in month 30 and is devoted to the completion of the reference run and the preparation of simulation runs.

The scenario simulations (WP14) span the last half year of the project. During the last weeks, the results will be analysed and prepared for a concise presentation at the final meeting (month 36) to DG-AGRI and for the final report.

  

WP12: Reference Run
WP13: Scenario Writing
WP14: Simulation Runs
Last updated: Monday, March 29, 2004