DIES Modelling System (until 1997)

Overview

The DIES Modelling System is a policy information system for German farm groups designed for the German Ministry of Agriculture in Bonn. The aims of the system are as follows:

Analysis and consistency checks of data of the farm data network, aggregated by farm groups
Provision of short-term forecasts on the income development of these farm groups based on trends and expert knowlegde
Analysis of income changes

Main features:

Farm group model
Comparative static approach, short-term oriented
Based on trend analysis and expert knowledge
Activity based approach

Details

Methodology

The methodological concept of the DIES is an activity based approach. The farm group data of a German representative farm sample ("Testbetriebsnetz") is used to generate output and input coefficients for nearly 40 production activities. In order to do so, the system relies on profit-and-loss-accounts, activity levels and production data as a consistency framework. The farm groups are differentiated by farm type and farm size.

Technological coefficient growth rates, levels and prices are estimated for short-term forecasts and simulations, based on automatized best-fit trend estimates. These estimates are submited as suggestions to experts at the Ministry, who may then subsitute the trend estimates by exogenous information, e.g. from market monitoring.

Implementation & Applications

The model has been implemented by the German Federal Ministry of Agriculture since the end of the 1970s. The main applications are short-term forecasts, which are yearly published in the official agricultural report of the government ("Agrarbericht"), and simulations for the annual price negotiations with the EU. Since 1995 the new module for "model farms" has been used for specific analyses.

Publications:

BAUER, S., BAUERSACHS, F, GOTTHARDT F. & HENRICHSMEYER W. (1975): Entwicklung eines kurzfristigen Vorausschätzungs- und Simulationssystems fuer landwirtschaftliche Betriebsgruppen, Forschungsbericht, Bonn: Institut fuer Agrarpolitik
ROTHE, M. (1981): Gruppendifferenzierte Einkommensanalyse und und kurzfirstige Einkommensprognose fuer den Agrarsektor der Bundesrepublik Deutschland, Dissertation, Bonn: im Eigenverlag Forschungsbericht, Bonn: Institut fuer Agrarpolitik, 1993
BRITZ, W. (1993): Inhaltlicher Endbericht, Dokumentation zum DIES 93, Forschungsbericht, Bonn: Institut fuer Agrarpolitik, 1993
HENRICHSMEYER, W., CYPRIS, CH. & NEUMANN, M. (1994): Abschlußbericht zum Forschungsvorhaben: Einbeziehung der Testbetriebsdaten aus den neuen Bundesländern in das Vorausschätzungs- und Simulationsmodell DIES". Forschungsbericht, Bonn.
HENRICHSMEYER, W., CYPRIS, CH. & NEUMANN, M. (1994): Benutzerhandbuch. Technische Dokumentation zum DIES 94. Forschungsbericht, Bonn.

Projects:

The institute has adapted the system to changes in the farm data network:

Technical and methodological update and development of a module for typical farms (in German)
Inclusion of farm data network information on the "Neue Länder" (in German)
Update and adaption to the revised farm data network questionaire (in German)

DIES contact partners, Bonn:

Institute for Food and Resource Economics
of the University of Bonn,
Nussallee 21, D-53115 Bonn
FAX.: +49-228-982 29 23

Last updated: Friday, October 15, 2010

Content

See also