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Research topic at the former chair for "Volkswirtschaftslehre, Agrarpolitik und landwirtschaftliches Informationswesen" (until 2002)

Basics and Methodology of Agricultural Sector Analysis

Note: The research activities were classified into research topics in 2000 under the head of the former chair, Prof. Henrichsmeyer. Our team dynamically develops its research agenda and refrains today from a strict classification. Not all topics documented at that time are comprised in our current research portfolio as indiacted by time spans and publication years.

Until the beginning of the 1970s, research focused primarily on methodological issues. In the early 1970s, however, a large-scale research programme named "Konkurrenzvergleich landwirtschaftlicher Standorte" (that is, comparison of competetiveness of agricultural areas), and funded by the German Research Foundation DFG, was started (for the concept see: Henrichsmeyer, de Haen 1972, for results: Bauersachs, Henrichsmeyer 1979, retrospective: Henrichsmeyer 1994). These activities resulted in the development of the modelling systems QUISS, DAPS and DIES. This was also the starting point for the development of a whole software infrastructure supporting agricultural sector modelling. Since the 1980s, policy-oriented research at the European and national level as well as on agricultural trade has gained importance.

However, research on the principles and methodology of quantiative agricultural sector analysis has continued in the following areas, which are only loosely related to the large-scale, policy-oriented projects generally undertaken by the institute:

References

  • Henrichsmeyer, W. (1994): Räumliche Verteilung der Agrarproduktion, Agrarwirtschaft (43), S. 183-188.
  • Bauersachs, F., Henrichsmeyer, W. (eds.) (1979): Beiträge zur quantitativen Sektor- und Regionalanalyse im Agrarbereich, Band I, Agrarwirtschaft, Sonderheft.
  • Henrichsmeyer, W., de Haen, H. (1972): Zur Konzeption des Schwerpunktprogrammes der Deutschen Forschungsgemeinschaft "Konkurrenzvergleich landwirtschaftlicher Standorte", Agrarwirtschaft (21), S. 141-152.

    • Agricultural sector analysis based on microtheory

    Different types of agricultural household models have been analysed in a comparative and integrative theoretical study (dissertation Witzke 1993). This study looked at the implications of several agricultural sector market failures, such as imperfect capital and labour markets, expectations, risk and adjustment costs. With a view to provide a comprehensive survey on individual behaviour according to neoclassical microtheory, models of consumer households and suppliers of labour were also included.

    Aggregation is a key issue for microeconomic analyses of the agricultural sector. The changing structure of agriculture in terms of farm size has implications for supply and factor demand functions, which are analysed with profit function estimations (Witzke 1996).

    A fundamental step beyond the standard, static profit maximization model is the incorporation of adjustment costs. This type of model was successfully estimated based on aggregate time series data for Western German agriculture. From an empirical point of view the model proved surprisingly similar to an ad hoc multivariate partial adjustment model (Witzke/Heckelei 1996).


    References

    • Witzke, H.P., Heckelei, Th. (1996): Adjustment Cost and Partial Adjustment Models for German Agriculture, Referat auf der Siebenunddreißigsten Jahrestagung der Gesellschaft für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften des Landbaus in Gießen, 30.09. - 02.10.1996. Included in the Proceedings.
    • Witzke, H.P. (1996): Agrarian Structure and Profit Functions for the German Agricultural Sector, Paper on the VIIIth EAAE Congress, September 3, Edinburgh.
    • Witzke, H.P. (1993): Mikrotheorie in der Agrarsektoranalyse - Neoklassischer Standard, Konflikte mit der Realität und Versöhnungsversuche mit Komplikationen [Microtheory in Agricultural Sector Analysis - Neoclassical Standard, Conflicts with Reality and Attempts of Reconciliation with Complications], Berlin.

    Data work and analysis on primary factor use and agrarian structure

    Adequate data is a key aspect of all empirical analyses. As regards data on capital, the institute has been engaged in perpetual inventory calculations since the end of the 1980s. Work in this field started in the context of productivity comparisons (in Ostermeyer-Schlöder 1990), and was followed up in co-operation with Eldon Ball from the ERS of the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) and J.-Ch. Bureau from the Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), (see Ball et al. 1993, Witzke 1996).

    In recent years, several diploma theses contained analyses on labour mobility differentiated according to demografic and other criteria. In the most recent study, Western German family labour was differentiated according to age and sex for full time and part time labour separately. Estimation of labour mobility under these categories in a simultaneous system gave encouraging results (see Pavel 1997, forthcoming). A similar analysis of labour mobility is part of the modelling efforts for RAUMIS project, which in addition includes a regional breakdown and follows the division of labour agreed by the German FAL.

    The institute has a long-standing tradition in the analysis of agricultural land markets and farm structure, see for example Lipinsky et al. 1982, Wehner 1986 or Jedrzejewski (dissertation in preparation). At a recent conference of the German "Alliance for Social Sciences for Agriculture" (GEWISOLA) in Freising-Weihenstephan, results of an econometric analysis of structural change in farming were presented (Witzke/Heckelei 1997). Further work in this direction is under way.

    References

    • Witzke, H.P., Heckelei, Th. (1997): Betrieblicher Strukturwandel unter dem Einfluß ökonomischer Rahmenbedingungen, Referat auf der Achtunddreißigsten Jahrestagung der Gesellschaft für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften des Landbaüs in Freising-Weihenstephan, 6.10. - 8.10.1997.
    • Pavel, F. (1997): Analyse der Bestandsentwicklung landwirtschaftlicher Familienarbeitskräfte in Westdeutschland, Agricultural and Resource Economics Discussion Paper 97-02, University of Bonn.
    • Witzke, H.P. (1996): Capital Stocks and Their User Cost for German Agriculture: A Documentation, Agricultural and Resource Economics Discussion Paper 96-01, University of Bonn.
    • Ball, V.E., Bureau, J.Ch., Butault, J.P., Witzke, H.P. (1993): The Stock of Capital in European Community Agriculture, European Review of Agricultural Economics (20), pp. 437-450.
    • Ostermeyer-Schlöder (1991): Die Entwicklung der Agrarsektoren in den Mitgliedstaaten der EG vor dem Hintergrund der Euröpäischen Wirtschaftsintegration, Studien zur Wirtschafts und Agrarpolitik (3), Bonn
    • Wehner, B. (1987): Die Bestimmungsgründe der Entwicklung der Landpacht unter besonderer Berücksichtigung der die Pacht beeinflussenden agrarpolitischen Maßnahmen, Dissertation, Bonn.
    • Lipinsky, E.E., Hötzel, H.J., Mantau, R., Wehner, B (1982): Die Bestimmungsgrößen der Eigentums- und Pachtverhältnisse, sowie der Mobilität und Nutzung von Agrarland in der Bundesrepublik Deutschland, Kommission der Euröpäischen Gemeinschaften (Hrsg.), Mitteilungen über Landwirtschaft (83), Luxemburg.

    Conceptual foundations of policy information systems

    Since the 1970s the institute has developed and applied different simulation and monitoring systems to support agricultural policy decisions. Based upon the acquired experience and taking the models developed at the institute as empirical examples, system theory was applied to define a conceptual framework for agricultural policy information systems (Britz 1994). The dissertation defines and categorizes agricultural policy information systems and describes the key components and interactions.

    References

    • Britz, W. (1994): Policy Information Systems for the Agricultural Sector - Concept and Applications, Quartely Bulletin of the International Association of Agricultural Information Specialists, vol. XXXIX, nos. 1-2, Southhampton.
    • Britz, W. (1994): Entwicklung und Anwendung agrarsektoraler Politikinformationssysteme, in: W. Henrichsmeyer (Hrsg.), Studien zur Wirtschafts- und Agrarpolitik, Band 12, Verlag M. Wehle, Witterschlick/Bonn 1994.

    Robust Bayesian Estimation of Econometric Models

    Bayesian estimation is the most transparent and rigorous approach to incorporate prior (non-sample) information into econometric models. The development of robust estimation techniques in this realm was the core of the dissertation Heckelei 1995. Several resulting articles and papers deal with the theoretical foundation of the methodology (Heckelei/Mittelhammer 1994, Heckelei/Mittelhammer 1996a, 1996b). Other papers report on the application of the techniques to the estimation of a demand system using different types of "theoretical" and "subjective" prior information on parameters and elasticities (Heckelei/Mittelhammer/Wahl 1996a, 1996b, 1997).

    References

    • Heckelei, Th., Mittelhammer, R. C. and Wahl, T.I. (1997): Bayesian Analysis of a Japanese Meat Demand System: A Robust Likelihood Approach, Agricultural and Resource Economics, Discussion Paper 97-01, Institut für Agrarpolitik, Universität Bonn.
    • Heckelei, Th., Mittelhammer,  R.C. (1996a): Bayesian Bootstrap Inference via Regression Structure Likelihood. Forthcoming, in: T.B.Fomby and R.C. Hill (eds.), Advances in Econometrics Vol. 11A, pp. 179-209.
    • Heckelei, Th., Mittelhammer, R. C. (1996b): Bayesian Bootstrap Analysis of Systems of Equations, Agricultural and Resource Economics, Discussion Paper 96-02, Institut für Agrarpolitik, Universität Bonn.
    • Heckelei, Th., Mittelhammer, R. C. and Wahl, T.I. (1996a): Evaluation of Equality and Inequality Restrictions for a Meat Demand System: A Robust Bayesian Bootstrap Approach, Paper presented at the North American Meeting of the International Society for Bayesian Analysis, Chicago.
    • Heckelei, Th., Mittelhammer, R. C. and Wahl, T.I. (1996b): Robust Bayesian Analysis of a Japanese Meat Demand System, Paper presented at the VIIIth Congress of the European Association of Agricultural Economists, Edinburgh.
    • Heckelei, Th. (1995): Robust Bayesian Estimation of Econometric Models: Theory and Application. Ph.D. Thesis, Washington State University.
    • Heckelei, TH., Mittelhammer, R. C. (1994): Robust Bayesian Bootstrap Regression. Paper presented at the annual Meeting of the American Agricultural Economics Association, San Diego.
    Last Updated: Tuesday, October 19, 2010