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Integrated Impact Assessment of an Increase in Biofuel Demand in Europe: The Economic and Technological Dimension

Project for IPTS/DG-JRC, Sevilla, Call for tender No. No J05/32/2008

Overview

• The main task of the project is to improve the analytical capacities for quantitative assessment of first and second generation bio-fuels production in Europe on agricultural markets, farm income and the environment, based on an extension of the CAPRI modelling system. The extended system will then be applied for impact assessment of bio-fuel policies. The project encompasses the following sub-tasks:.
• Development of a biofuel component for CAPRI which includes European biofuel supply and global trade
• Integration of a response surface of the energy model PRIMES in CAPRI to derive endogenous biofuel demand
• Reference run for 2020 and counterfactual scenarios to test new system
• Project period: 01/2009-04/2010

Contribution of ILR to the project

1. Adaptation of the agricultural sector model CAPRI to cover the European biofuel market

• Integration of bio-ethanol and bio-diesel in the global market model of CAPRI
• Definition of suitable behavioral function for biofuel processing to derive endogenous biofuel feedstock demand
• Development of a first prototype module for second generation biofuels

2. Linking of the CAPRI model with an energy model PRIMES

• Estimation of a response surface from existing PRIMES simulation results
• Integration of the response surface into CAPRI
• Discussion of suitable biofuel scenarios with the PRIMES team

3. Scenario analysis

• Implementation of suitable biofuel scenarios for 2020 and 2030 in line with requirements of the EU Commission (IPTS)
• Scenario runs with the new developed CAPRI biofuel module and analysis of results

Partners

• Institute for Food and Resource Economicis, Chair of Economic and Agricultural Policy, University Bonn (co-ordinator)
• Athens University, Institute of Communication and Computer Systems (ICCS)

Publications related to the project

Wolfgang Britz and T. Hertel: Impacts of EU biofuels directives on global markets and EU environmental quality: An integrated PE, global CGE analysis , Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment , p. in press Link...

Arno Becker, Marcel Adenäuer and M. Blanco Fonseca: Impacts of European biofuel policies on agricultural markets and environment under consideration of 2nd generation technologies and international trade , selected paper presented at the IATRC Public Trade Policy Research and Analysis Symposium "Climate Change in World Agriculture: Mitigation, Adaptation, Trade and Food Security," June 27 - 29, 2010, Universität Hohenheim, Stuttgart (Germany)

Wolfgang Britz and T. Hertel: Impacts of EU biofuels directives on global markets and EU environmental quality: An integrated PE, global CGE analysis , in: Integrated Assessment of Agriculture and Sustainable Development (AgSAP), 10-12 March, 2009, Egmont an Zee (The Netherlands) , p. 144-145

Current project team in Bonn

• Arno Becker

• Marcel Adenäuer

• Heinz Peter Witzke

• Wolfgang Britz

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Last updated: Thursday, October 21, 2010

News

• Special issue of the journal World Economy on Non-Tariff-Measures with contributions of researchers in the institute Beghin, J. and Orden, D. (Guest Eds.)(2012):
  "NTMs, Agricultural and Food Trade, and Competitiveness", Special Issue of The World Economy (forthcoming)
• Individual grant by DFG (German Science Foundation) "Analysis of dairy production systems differentiated by location; bewilligt Principal investigators Christine Wieck and Thomas Heckelei, Doctoral student Yyonne Zavelberg, 3/2012-3/2015
• Individual grant by DFG (German Science Foundation) "The relation between indicators for the crediting of emission rights and abatement costs -a systematic modelling approach for dairy farms" Principal investigators Karin Holm-Müller and Wolfgang Britz, Doctoral student Bernd Lengers, 11/2011-11/2014

Recent publications

• Policy reform and agricultural land abandonment in the EU Renwick, A., Jansson, T., Verburg, P. H., Revoredo-Giha, C., Britz, W., Gocht, A. and McCracken, D., (2012):
  "Policy reform and agricultural land abandonment in the EU", Land Use Policy, 30 (2013) 446 - 457, doi:10.1016/j.landusepol.2012.04.005
• EU-Wide (Regional and Farm Level) Effects of Premium Decoupling and Harmonisation Following the Health Check Reform Britz, W., Gocht, A., Pèrez Dominguez, I., Jansson, T., Grosche, S. und Zhao, N.(2012):
  "EU-Wide (Regional and Farm Level) Effects of Premium Decoupling and Harmonisation Following the Health Check Reform", German Journal of Agricultural Economics61, p. 44-56
• TRQ-complications: who gets the benefits when the EU liberalizes Mercosur's access to the beef markets? F. Junker and T. Heckelei(2012):
  "TRQ-complications: who gets the benefits when the EU liberalizes Mercosur's access to the beef markets?", Agricultural Economics 43(2), p. 215-231
• Modelling Regional Input Markets With Numerous Processing Plants: The Case Of Green Maize For Biogas Production In Germany R. Delzeit, W. Britz and H. Holm-Müller(2011):
  "Modelling Regional Input Markets With Numerous Processing Plants: The Case Of Green Maize For Biogas Production In Germany", Environmental Modelling & Software 32, p. 74-84
• Estimating irrigation water demand in the Moroccan Drâa Valley using contingent valuation Storm, H., T. Heckelei and C. Heidecke (2011):
  "Estimating irrigation water demand in the Moroccan Drâa Valley using contingent valuation", Journal of Environmental Management 92(10), p. 2803-2809
• Scale changes and model linking methods for integrated assessment of agri-environmental systems Ewert, F., M. Van Ittersum, T. Heckelei, O. Therond, I. Bezlepkina and E. Andersen (2011):
  "Scale changes and model linking methods for integrated assessment of agri-environmental systems", Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment 142(1-2), p. 6-17
• Farm, land, and soil nitrogen budgets for agriculture in Europe calculated with CAPRI Leip, A., W. Britz, F. Weiss and W. de Vries (2011):
  "Farm, land, and soil nitrogen budgets for agriculture in Europe calculated with CAPRI", Environmental Pollution 159(11), p. 3243-3253
• Foreign Direct Investment and the Performance of European Agribusiness Firms L. Adenäuer and T. Heckelei (2011):
  "Foreign Direct Investment and the Performance of European Agribusiness Firms", Journal of Agricultural Economics 62(3), p. 639-654