Methods and tools for quantitative economic analysis

Journal publications (peer reviewed)

Shang, L., Wang, J., Schäfer, D., Heckelei, T., Gall, J., Appel, F., Storm, H. (2024): Surrogate modelling of a detailed farm-level model using deep learning, Journal of Agricultural Economics 75(1): 235-260, Link.

Gebrekidan, B. H., Heckelei, T., Rasch, S. (2023): Modeling intensification decisions in the Kilombero Valley floodplain: A Bayesian belief network approach, Agricultural Economics 54(1): 23-43, Link

Heckelei, T., Hüttel, S., Odening, M., Rommel, J. (2023): The p-Value Debate and Statistical (Mal)practice – Implications for the Agricultural and Food Economics Community, German Journal of Agricultural Economics 72(1): 47-67, Link

Storm, H., Heckelei, T., Baylis, K., Mittenzwei, K. (2023): Identifying farmers’ response to changes in marginal and average subsidies using deep learning, American Journal of Agricultural Economics: 1-24. Link

Britz, W., Jafari, Y., Nekhay, O., Roson, R. (2022): Assessing inequality and poverty in long-term projections of economic growth: A general equilibrium analysis for six developing countries, Economic Modelling 117(106066): 18 pages, Link

Basnet, S., Jansson, T., Heckelei, T. (2021): A Bayesian econometrics and risk programming approach for analysing the impact of decoupled payments in the European Union, The Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics 65(3): pp. 729-759, Link

Jafari, Y., Britz, W., Guimbard, H., Beckman, J. (2021): Properly capturing tariff rate quotas for trade policy analysis in computable general equilibrium models, Economic Modelling 104(105620): 17 pages, Link

Jafari, Y., Himics, M., Britz, W., Beckman, J. (2021): It is all in the details: A bilateral approach for modelling trade agreements at the tariff line, Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics 69(3): 415-442, Link

Kuhn, A., Britz, W. (2021): Long-Term Scenarios for Sub-Saharan Africa’s Agro-Food Markets with varying Population, Income and Crop Productivity Trends, Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics 46(1): 20-36, Link

Mouratiadou, I., Latka, C., van der Hilst, F., Müller, C., Berges, R., Bodirsky, B. L., Ewert, F., Faye, B., Heckelei, T., Hoffmann, M., Lehtonen, H., Lorite, I. J., Nendel, C., Palosuo, T., Rodriguez, A., Rötter, R. P., Ruiz-Ramos, M., Stella, T., Webber, H., Wicke, B. (2021): Quantifying sustainable intensification of agriculture: The contribution of metrics and modelling, Ecological Indicators 129(107870): 16 pages, Link

Neuenfeldt, S., Gocht, A., Heckelei, T., Mittenzwei, K., Ciaian, P. (2021): Using Aggregated Farm Location Information to Predict Regional Structural Change of Farm Specialisation, Size and Exit/Entry in Norway Agriculture, Agriculture 11(7)(643): 22 pages, Link

Shang, L., Heckelei, T., Gerullis, M., Börner, J., Rasch, S. (2021): Adoption and diffusion of digital farming technologies - integrating farm-level evidence and system interaction, Agricultural Systems 190(103074): 17 pages, Link

Woldeyohanes, T. B., Kuhn, A., Heckelei, T., Duguma, L. (2021): Modeling Non-Cooperative Water Use in River Basins, Sustainability 13(15)(8269): 21 pages, Link

Amrouk, E. M., Heckelei, T. (2020): Forecasting International Sugar Prices: A Bayesian Model Average Analysis, Sugar Tech 22: 552-562, Link

Fedoseeva, S. (2020): (Dynamic) willingness to pay and e-commerce: Insights from sparkling wine sector in Russia, Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services 57: 12 pages, Link

Gebrekidan, B. H., Heckelei, T., Rasch, S. (2020): Characterizing Farmers and Farming System in Kilombero Valley Floodplain, Tanzania, Sustainability 12 17(7114): 1-21, Link

Jafari, Y., Britz, W. (2020): Brexit: an economy-wide impact assessment on trade, immigration, and foreign direct investment, Empirica 47(1): 17-52, Link

Jafari, Y., Britz, W., Dudu, H., Roson, R., Sartori, M. (2020): Can Food Waste Reduction in Europe Help to Increase Food Availability and Reduce Pressure on Natural Resources Globally?, German Journal of Agricultural Economics 69(2): 143-168, Link

Müller, B., Hoffmann, F., Heckelei, T., Müller, C., Hertel, T. W., Polhill, J. G., van Wijk, M., Achterbosch, T., Alexander, P., Brown, C., Kreuer, D., Ewert, F., Ge, J., Millington, J. D. A., Seppelt, R., Verburg, P. H., Webber, H. (2020): Modelling food security: Bridging the gap between the micro and the macro scale, Global Environmental Change 63: 16 pages, Link

Schäfer, A. C., Schmidt, A., Bechthold, A., Boeing, H. ., Watzl, B., Darmon, N., Devleesschauwer, B., Heckelei, T., Pires, S. M., Nadaud, P., van Dooren, C., Vieux, F. (2020): Integration of various dimensions in food-based dietary guidelines via mathematical approaches: report of a DGE/FENS Workshop in Bonn, Germany, 23–24 September 2019, British Journal of Nutrition: 1-8, Link

Storm, H., Baylis, K., Heckelei, T. (2020): Machine learning in agricultural and applied economics, European Review of Agricultural Economics 47(3): 849-892, Link

Neuenfeldt, S., Gocht, A., Heckelei, T., Ciaian, P. (2019): Explaining farm structural change in the European agriculture: a novel analytical framework, European Review of Agricultural Economics 46(5): 713-768, Link

Seidel, C., Heckelei, T., Lakner, S. (2019): Conventionalization of Organic Farms in Germany: An Empirical Investigation Based on a Composite Indicator Approach, Sustainability 11 (10)(2934): 16 pages, Link

Jafari, Y., Britz, W. (2018): Modelling heterogeneous firms and non-tariff measures in free trade agreements using Computable General Equilibrium, Economic Modelling 73: 279-294, Link

Rutten, M., Achterbosch, T., de Boer, I., Crespo Cuaresma, J., Geleijnse, J. M., Havlik, P., Heckelei, T., Ingram, J. S., Leip, A., Marette, S., van Meijl, H., Soler, L.-G., Swinnen, J., van’t Veer, P., Vervoort, J., Zimmermann, A., Zimmermann, K., Zurek, M. (2018): Metrics, models and foresight for European sustainable food and nutrition security: The vision of the SUSFANS Project, Agricultural Systems 163: 45-57, Link

Storm, H., Heckelei, T. (2018): Reducing omitted-variable bias in spatial-interaction models by considering multiple neighbourhoods, Spatial Economic Analysis 13(4): 457-472, Link

Zurek, M., Hebinck, A., Leip, A., Vervoort, J., Kuiper, M., Garrone, M., Havlik, P., Heckelei, T., Hornborg, S., Ingram, J. S., Kuijsten, A., Shutes, L., Geleijnse, J. M., Terluin, I., van´t Veer, P., Wijnands, J., Zimmermann, A., Achterbosch, T. (2018): Assessing Sustainable Food and Nutrition Security of the EU Food System—An Integrated Approach, Sustainability 10(11)(4271): pp. 1-16, Link

Himics, M., Britz, W. (2016): Flexible and welfare-consistent tariff aggregation over exporter regions, Economic Modelling 53: 375-387, Link

Rasch, S., Heckelei, T., Oomen, R., Naumann, C. (2016): Cooperation and collapse in a communal livestock production SES model – A case from South Africa, Environmental Modelling & Software 75: 402–413, Link

Storm, H., Heckelei, T., Mittelhammer, R. (2016): Bayesian estimation of non-stationary Markov models combining micro and macro data, European Review of Agricultural Economics 43(2): 303-329, Link

Britz, W., Pèrez Dominguez, I., Narayanan, G. B. (2015): Analyzing Results from Agricultural Large-scale Economic Simulation Models: Recent Progress and the Way Ahead, German Journal of Agricultural Economics 64(2): 107 - 119, Link

Delince, J., Ciaian, P., Witzke, H.-P. (2015): Economic impacts of climate change on agriculture: the AgMIP approach, Journal of Applied Remote Sensing 9(1): 097099-1 - 097099-16, Link

Britz, W. (2014): A New Graphical User Interface Generator for Economic Models and its Comparison to Existing Approaches, German Journal of Agricultural Economics 63(4): 271-285, Link

Britz, W., Ferris, M., Kuhn, A. (2013): Modeling water allocating institutions based on Multiple Optimization Problems with Equilibrium Constraints, Environmental Modelling & Software 46: 196–207, Link

Podhora, A., Helming, K., Adenäuer, L., Heckelei, T., Kautto, P., Reidsma, P., Rennings, K., Turnpenny, J., Jansen, J. (2013): The policy-relevancy of impact assessment tools: Evaluating nine years of European research funding, Environmental Science & Policy 31: 85-95, Link

Delzeit, R., Britz, W., Holm-Müller, K. (2012): Modelling regional input markets with numerous processing plants: The case of green maize for biogas production in Germany, Environmental Modelling & Software 32: 74-84, Link

Britz, W., Van Ittersum, M., Oude Lansink, A., Heckelei, T. (2012): Tools for Integrated Assessment in Agriculture. State of the Art and Challenges, Bio-based and Applied Economics 1(2): 125-150, Link

Heckelei, T., Britz, W., Zhang, Y. (2012): Positive Mathematical Programming Approaches – Recent Developments in Literature and Applied Modelling, Bio-based and Applied Economics 1(1): 109-124, Link

Kuhn, A., Britz, W. (2012): Can hydro-economic river basin models simulate water shadow prices under asymmetric access?, Water Science & Technology 66(4): 879–886, Link

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