Ökonomische Modellierung von Agrarsystemen

PD Dr. Wolfgang Britz

Der Schwerpunkt unserer Arbeit liegt auf der Entwicklung und Anwendung wirtschaftlicher Simulationsmodelle vom landwirtschaftlichen Betrieb bis hin zur globalen Ebene, um quantitative Fragen im Agrar- und Ernährungssystem im Zusammenhang mit Aspekten der Nachhaltigkeit und der Bereitstellung von Ökosystemleistungen zu analysieren.

Avatar Britz

PD Dr. agr. Wolfgang Britz

Head of Group Economic Modeling of Agricultural Systems

+49 228 73-2912

Forschung

Jüngste Forschungsbeispiele betreffen die optimale Bewirtschaftung landwirtschaftlicher Betriebe und Investitionsstrategien in einem sich wandelnden Markt- und Politikumfeld unter Berücksichtigung von Risiken, Strukturwandelanalysen und Nährstoffaustauschs zwischen landwirtschaftlichen Betrieben auf regionaler Ebene in agentenbasierten Modellen sowie langfristige Projektionen des globalen Ernährungssystems.

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Aktuelle Projekte

Derzeit arbeiten wir an drei Projekten: Detect, BatModel und MindStep.

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Abgeschlossene Projekte

Die Projekte PhenoRob, Transform2Bio und BEST sind kürzlich abgeschlossen worden.

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Instrumente

Zu unseren Instrumenten gehören zum Beispiel CGEBox, FarmDyn und GGIG.

Lehre

Wir bieten Kurse über den neuesten Stand der quantitativen ökonomischen Modellierung von Agrar- und Lebensmittelsystemen auf Masterniveau an, die es ermöglichen, praktische Erfahrungen mit den von uns entwickelten und angewandten ökonomischen Modellen zu sammeln. Nach erfolgreicher Teilnahme an den Kursen können die Studierenden das Nebenfach "Economic Modeling" erwerben.

  • Bio-Economic Modeling at Farm-Scale
  • Partial and General Equilibrium Modeling
  • Applied Modeling of Agricultural Systems

Darüber hinaus bieten wir im Herbst einen einwöchigen Blockkurs zur fortgeschrittenen GAMS-Modellierung im Rahmen des Promotionskolleg Agrarökonomik an, das von deutschsprachigen Universitäten mit agrarökonomischen Studiengängen gemeinsam durchgeführt wird. Dieser Kurs ist auch für unsere Masterstudenten geöffnet.

Mitarbeitende

Unser Team besteht aus promovierten und promovierenden Wissenschaftler*innen. Sie finden uns im Erdgeschoss der Nussallee 19.

Externe Doktorand*innen

  • Lennart Kokemohr, lennart.kokemohr@ilr.uni-bonn.de
  • Salwa Haddad
  • Claudia Seidel

Alumni

  • Dr. Till Kuhn
  • Dr. Christoph Pahmeyer

Veröffentlichungen

Freytag, J., Britz, W., Kuhn, T. (2023): The economic potential of organic production for stockless arable farms importing biogas digestate: A case study analysis for western Germany, Agricultural Systems 209: 103682, link

Shang, L., Pahmeyer, C., Heckelei, T., Rasch, S., Storm, H. (2023): How much can farmers pay for weeding robots? A Monte Carlo simulation study, Precision Agriculture, link.

Huber, R., Tarruella, M., Schäfer, D., & Finger, R. (2023). Marginal climate change abatement costs in Swiss dairy production considering farm heterogeneity and interaction effects. Agricultural Systems, 207, 103639, link.

Shang, L., Wang, J., Schäfer, D., Heckelei, T., Gall, J., Appel, F., & Storm, H. (2023). Surrogate modelling of a detailed farm‐level model using deep learning. Journal of Agricultural Economics, link.

Kokemohr, L., Escobar, N., Mertens, A., Mosnier, C., Pirlo, G., Veysset, P., & Kuhn, T. (2022). Life Cycle Sustainability Assessment of European beef production systems based on a farm-level optimization model. Journal of Cleaner Production, 379, 134552

Britz, W., Jafari, Y., Nekhay, O., Roson, R. (2022): Assessing inequality and poverty in long-term projections of economic growth: A general equilibrium analysis for six developing countries, Economic Modelling: 10606.

Arata, L., Chakrabarti, A., Ekane, N., Foged, H. L., Pahmeyer, C., Rosemarin, A., & Sckokai, P. (2022). Assessment of environmental and farm business impacts of phosphorus policies in two European regions. Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems, 6(852887), 1-14.

Kuhn, T., Möhring, N., Töpel, A., Jakob, F., Britz, W., Bröring, S., Pich, A., Schwaneberg, U., Rennings, M. (2022): Using a bio-economic farm model to evaluate the economic potential and pesticide load reduction of the greenRelease technology, Agricultural Systems 201: 103454.

Britz, W. (2022): Implementing an Approximation of Cumulative Prospect Theory into Mixed Linear Programming – an Application to Bio-Economic Modelling at Farm-Scale Considering Crop Insurance, German Journal of Agricultural Economics 71(4).

Britz, W. (2022): Disaggregating Agro-Food Sectors in the GTAP Data Base, Journal for Global Economic Analysis 7(1): 44-75.

Britz, W. (2021): Automated Calibration of Farm-Sale Mixed Linear Programming Models using Bi-Level Programming, German Journal of Agricultural Economics 70(3): 165-181.

Britz, W. (2021): Estimating a global MAIDADS demand system considering demography, climate and norms, Bio-based and Applied Economics 10(3): 219-238.

Britz, W. (2021): Comparing Penalty Functions in Balancing and Dis-aggregating Social Accounting Matrices, Journal of Global Economic Analysis 6(1): 34-81.

Britz, W., Ciaian, P., Gocht, A., Kanellopoulos, A., Kremmydas, D., Müller, M., Petsakos, A., Reidsma, P. (2021): A design for a generic and modular bio-economic farm model, Agricultural Systems 191(June 2021): 103133.

Escobar, N., Britz, W. (2021): Metrics on the sustainability of region-specific bioplastics production, considering global land use change effects, Resources, Conservation and Recycling 167(April 2021): 105345.

Heinrichs, J., Jouan, J., Pahmeyer, C., Britz, W. (2021): Integrated assessment of legume production challenged by European policy interaction: A case-study approach from French and German dairy farms, QOpen 1(1): 1-19.

Heinrichs, J., Kuhn, T., Pahmeyer, C., Britz, W. (2021): Economic effects of plot sizes and farm-plot distances in organic and conventional farming systems: A farm-level analysis for Germany, Agricultural Systems 187: 1029922020.

Jafari, Y., Britz, W., Guimbard, H., Beckman, J. (2021): Properly capturing tariff rate quotas for trade policy analysis in computable general equilibrium models, Economic Modelling 104(105620): 17 pages.

Jafari, Y., Himics, M., Britz, W., Beckman, J. (2021): It is all in the details: A bilateral approach for modelling trade agreements at the tariff line, Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics 69(3): 415-442.

Kuhn, A., Britz, W. (2021): Long-Term Scenarios for Sub-Saharan Africa’s Agro-Food Markets with varying Population, Income and Crop Productivity Trends, Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics 46(1): 20-36.

Mosnier, C., Jarousse, A., Madrange, P., Balouzat, J., Guillier, M., Pirlo, G., Mertens, A., ORiordan, E., Pahmeyer, C., Hennart, S., Legein, L., Crosson, P., Kearney, M., Dimon, P., Bertozzi, C., Reding, E., Iacurto, M., Breen, J., Carè, S., Veysset, P. (2021): Evaluation of the contribution of 16 European beef production systems to food security, Agricultural Systems 190(May 2021): 103088.

Pahmeyer, C., Kuhn, T., Britz, W. (2021): ‘Fruchtfolge’: A crop rotation decision support system for optimizing cropping choices with big data and spatially explicit modeling, Computers and Electronics in Agriculture 181: 105948.

Pahmeyer, C., Schäfer, D., Kuhn, T., Britz, W. (2021): Data on a synthetic farm population of the German federal state of North Rhine-Westphalia, Data in Brief 36(June 2021): 107007.

Roson, R., Britz, W. (2021): Simulating long run structural change with a dynamic general equilibrium model, Int. J. Computational Economics and Econometrics 11(4): 368-404.

Spiegel, A., Britz, W., Finger, R. (2021): Risk, Risk Aversion, and Agricultural Technology Adoption – A Novel Valuation Method Based on Real Options and Inverse Stochastic Dominance, Q Open 1(2): 1-26.

Wilts, R., Latka, C., Britz, W. (2021): Who is Most Vulnerable to Climate Change Induced Yield Changes? A Dynamic Long Run Household Analysis in Lower Income Countries, Climate Risk Management 33(100330): 16 pages.

Böcker, T., Möhring, N., Finger, R., Britz, W. (2020): An economic and environmental assessment of a glyphosate ban for the example of maize production, European Review of Agricultural Economics 47(2): 371–402.

Delzeit, R., Beach, R., Britz, W., Chateau, J., Freund, F., Lefevre, J., Schuenemann, F., Sulser, T., van Ruijven, B., Weitzel, M., Willenbockel, D., Wojtowicz, K. (2020): Linking Global CGE Models with Sectoral Models to Generate Baseline Scenarios: Approaches, Challenges, and Opportunities, Journal of Global Economic Analysis 5(1): 162-195.

Ho, M., Britz, W., Delzeit, R., Leblanc, F., Roson, R., Schuenemann, F., Weitzel, M. (2020): Modelling Consumption and Constructing Long-Term Baselines in Final Demand, Journal of Global Economic Analysis 5(1): 63-80.

Jafari, Y., Britz, W. (2020): Brexit: an economy-wide impact assessment on trade, immigration, and foreign direct investment, Empirica 47(1): 17-52.

Jafari, Y., Britz, W., Dudu, H., Roson, R., Sartori, M. (2020): Can Food Waste Reduction in Europe Help to Increase Food Availability and Reduce Pressure on Natural Resources Globally?, German Journal of Agricultural Economics 69(2): 143-168.

Kuhn, T., Enders, A., Gaiser, T., Schäfer, D., Srivastava, A., Britz, W. (2020): Coupling crop and bio-economic farm modelling to evaluate the revised fertilization regulations in Germany, Agricultural Systems 127(May 2020): 104656.

Nong, D., Escobar, N., Britz, W., Börner, J. (2020): Long-term impacts of bio-based innovation in the chemical sector: a dynamic global perspective, Journal of Cleaner Production 272(November 2020): 122738.

Pahmeyer, C., Britz, W. (2020): Economic opportunities of using crossbreeding and sexing in Holstein dairy herds, Journal of Dairy Science 103(9): 8218-8230.

Seidel, C., Britz, W. (2020): Estimating a Dual Value Function as a Meta-Model of a Detailed Dynamic Mathematical Programming Model, Bio-based and Applied Economic 8(1): 75-99.

Spiegel, A., Britz, W., Finger, R., Djanibekov, U. (2020): Stochastic-dynamic modelling of farm-level investments under uncertainty, Environmental Modeling and Software 127(May 2020): 104656.

Spiegel, A., Severini, S., Britz, W., Coletta, A. (2020): Step-by-step development of a model simulating returns on farm from investments: the example of hazelnut plantation in Italy, Bio-Based and Applied Economics 9(1): 53-83.

Arata, L., Britz, W. (2019): Econometric mathematical programming: an application to the estimation of costs and risk preferences at farm level, Agricultural Economics 50(2): 191-206.

Britz, W., Roson, R. (2019): G-RDEM: A GTAP-Based Recursive Dynamic CGE Model for Long-Term Baseline Generation and Analysis, Journal of Global Economic Analysis 4(1): 50-96.

Haddad, S., Britz, W., Börner, J. (2019): Economic Impacts and Land Use Change from Increasing Demand for Forest Products in the European Bioeconomy: A General Equilibrium Based Sensitivity Analysis, Forests 10(52): 1-27.

Jafari, Y., Britz, W., Beckman, J. (2019): The impacts to food consumers of a Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership, Bio-based and Appplied Economics 7(2): 139-160.

Kuhn, T., Schäfer, D., Holm-Müller, K., Britz, W. (2019): On-farm compliance costs with the EU-Nitrates Directive: A modelling approach for specialized livestock production in northwest Germany, Agricultural Systems 173: 233-243.

Mosnier, C., Britz, W., Julliere, T., De Cara, S., Jayet, P.-A., Havlik, P., Frank, S., Mosnier, A. (2019): Greenhouse gas abatement strategies and costs in French dairy production, Journal of Cleaner Production 236(November 2019): 117589.

Seidel, C., Heckelei, T., Lakner, S. (2019): Conventionalization of Organic Farms in Germany: An Empirical Investigation Based on a Composite Indicator Approach, Sustainability 11 (10)(2934): 16 pages.

Böcker, T., Britz, W., Finger, R. (2018): Modelling the Effects of a Glyphosate Ban on Weed Management in Silage Maize Production, Ecological Economics 145: 182-193.

Britz, W., van der Mensbrugghe, D. . (2018): CGEBox: A Flexible, Modular and Extendable Framework for CGE Analysis in GAMS, Journal of Global Economic Analysis 3(2): 106-176.

Escobar, N., Haddad, S., Börner, J., Britz, W. (2018): Land use mediated GHG emissions and spillovers from increased consumption of bioplastic, Environmental Research Letters 13(12).

Jafari, Y., Britz, W. (2018): Modelling heterogeneous firms and non-tariff measures in free trade agreements using Computable General Equilibrium, Economic Modelling 73: 279-294.

Kuhn, T., Kokemohr, L., Holm-Müller, K. (2018): A life cycle assessment of liquid pig manure transport in line with EU regulations: A case study from Germany, Journal of Environmental Management 217: 456-467.

Mittenzwei, K., Britz, W. (2018): Analysing Farm-specific Payments for Norway using the Agrispace Model, Journal of Agricultural Economics 69(3): 777-793.

Spiegel, A., Britz, W., Djanibekov, U., Finger, R. (2018): Policy analysis of perennial energy crop cultivation at the farm level: Short rotation coppice (SRC) in Germany, Biomass and Bioenergy 110: 41-56.

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